The Decisions of Hungry and Tired Judges
According to Barbara Sahakian, a professor of clinical neuropsychology, we make about 35,000 decisions a day. How many of those do you think are made consciously or with at our minds at 100%? If we behave the way traditional economics tells us that we do, the answer would be all of them! But we know that isn’t the case. Our minds are often refreshed after a good night's sleep, priming the morning for important decision-making, but the myriad decisions made during the day are done under suboptimal conditions, which leads us to be more susceptible to biases.
A concept known as decision fatigue in behavioral economics helps shed light on why normal people skip the exercise class they intended to go to after work, choose the less healthy comfort food option for dinner, or go late-night online shopping. These decisions might seem inconsequential and infrequent, but what if I told you decision fatigue occurs in high-stakes areas as well?
Let’s take a look at an experiment involving Israeli judges to demonstrate decision fatigue further.
This experiment analyzed 1,100 cases of judicial rulings by Israeli judges who presided over parole hearings in criminal cases. The study sought to determine if the time of day affects the likelihood that parole would be granted. The researchers found an interesting result, where there were three distinct times during the day when judges are most likely to grant parole.
In the first hearings in the morning, 65% of prisoners are granted parole and that probability slowly declines to zero right before their lunch break. However, after their lunch break, the probability of parole increased again to about 65%, and then gradually dropped, again, to zero. Then, after the afternoon break, the probability of parole increased again to about 65%.
What is happening here?
After so many repeated decisions, judges become exhausted, hungry, and mentally depleted. And in these states, the judges become more simplistic in their decisions and use less effortful strategies. In this case, the default and status quo of not granting parole, which is a lower-risk option.
So, what can we do about this? How do we design our environment so that we’re able to make the best decisions when it matters the most?
Understanding that timing matters may be the most important takeaway. Just like the Israeli judges, key business decisions should be made during the times of day when you’re most mentally alert and fresh, typically in the morning. Additionally, deprioritize less important decisions and identify the ones that require full cognitive capacity to prioritize. Lastly, it’s important to take breaks! Perhaps avoid scheduling back-to-back meetings and give yourself some time for a mental refresh.
Recognizing and actively working to combat decision fatigue can lead to better, more thoughtful decisions for you and your organization.